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Market Matters Blog           10/14 08:26
US Surface Transportation Board Addresses Demurrage Rules, Charges
DTN Weekly DDG Price Higher on Average 
2019 U.S Spring Wheat and Durum Harvest: The Good, the Bad, the Ugly
Will the 13th US-China Trade Meeting Be the 'Lucky One?'
DTN Weekly Average DDG Price Slightly Higher
It's a Wrap! 2019 Hard Red Winter Wheat Harvest Finally Ends
DTN Weekly Average DDG Price Higher
Key Columbia River Lock Shutdown Stops All Barges Headed for Export
DTN Weekly Average DDG Price Stronger
Three 2019 Lock Closures on Illinois River Will Delay Barge Traffic

******************************************************************************
US Surface Transportation Board Addresses Demurrage Rules, Charges

   The Surface Transportation Board (STB) released a statement on Oct. 7 that 
it is issuing a "series of decisions on demurrage and accessorial rules and 
charges, continuing its efforts to improve dispute resolution processes, 
promote transparency, and make the agency more accessible." 

   The STB issued the three decisions concurrently to address matters arising 
from the STB's May 2019 two-day public hearing on railroad demurrage and 
accessorial charges, "Oversight Hearing on Demurrage and Accessorial Charges, 
Docket No. EP 754." The hearing was held in response to significant recent 
changes in demurrage and accessorial rules and charges implemented by several 
Class I railroads the STB was actively monitoring. 

   The National Grain and Feed (NGFA) was present at the hearing with testimony 
provided by NGFA President and Chief Executive Officer Randy Gordon. "We 
believe that in far too many cases, current demurrage and accessorial charges 
and practices are egregious and merely exemplify the market power of today's 
Class I railroads, reflecting their ability to unilaterally impose one-sided 
terms and conditions on their customers," said Gordon. 

   "Frankly, NGFA members in some segments of our industry believe they are at 
a 'tipping point' in their relationship with Class I rail carriers because of 
these and other practices, particularly with the increased adoption of the 
so-called precision scheduled railroad operating model." Here is a link to the 
press release issued by the NGFA on May 23, 2019: 
https://www.ngfa.org/newsletter/ngfa-urges-stb-to-develop-principles-guidance-go
verning-rail-demurrage-and-accessorial-charges-and-practices/.

   The NGFA in their June 14, 2019, newsletter noted that Class I freight 
railroads pushed back strongly against the STB pursuing any policies, guidance 
or investigation of carriers' demurrage and accessorial charges and practices 
following the agency's "robust, informative and eye-popping" May 22 and May 23 
public hearing in Washington.

   In the article, the NGFA presented comments from all of the Class 1 
rai1roads who voiced their concerns in supplemental comments submitted to the 
agency in the aftermath of the May public hearing. 
https://www.ngfa.org/newsletter/railroads-oppose-stb-policy-action-on-demurrage-
accessorial-practices/.

   The three decisions issued by the STB are:

   -- A proposed policy statement to facilitate more effective problem solving 
between railroads, shippers and receivers by providing information on 
principles the STB would consider in evaluating the reasonableness of demurrage 
and accessorial rules and charges. 

   -- A proposed rule to enhance the transparency and accuracy of demurrage 
invoices. 

   -- A proposed rule to make unambiguous that the regulation of demurrage is 
not excluded for exempt miscellaneous commodities and boxcar transportation, 
and to treat the exemption for certain agricultural commodities similarly.

   With the proposed policy statement, the STB expects to facilitate more 
effective problem solving between railroads, shippers and receivers in order to 
help prevent unnecessary future issues and, when disputes arise, to help 
resolve them more efficiently and cost-effectively.

   The STB is issuing this proposed policy statement to provide the public with 
information on principles that the STB would consider in "evaluating the 
reasonableness of demurrage and accessorial rules and charges." The STB seeks 
public comment on this proposed policy statement and may revise it, as 
appropriate, after consideration of the comments received. 

   Comments on this proposed policy statement are due by Nov. 6, 2019. Reply 
comments are due by Dec. 6, 2019. Comments and replies may be filed with the 
Board either via e-filing or in writing addressed to: Surface Transportation 
Board, Attn: Docket No. EP 757, 395 E Street SW, Washington, DC 20423-0001. 
Comments and replies will be posted to the STB's website at http://www.stb.gov/.

   Here is a link to the Federal Register Notice Volume 84, Number 197, 
Thursday, October 10, 2019: 
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2019-10-10/html/2019-22200.htm.

   Here is a link to the press release issued by the STB on 10-7-19: 
https://www.stb.gov/newsrels.nsf/13c1d2f25165911f8525687a00678fa7/fdf7975c980b39
8a8525848c005061b9?OpenDocument.

   Here is a link to all the comments currently associated with the Oversight 
Hearing on Demurrage and Accessorial Charges, Docket No. EP 754. All you need 
to do is open the drop down next to Docket# and click on "EP" and then in the 
next box put 754: 
https://www.stb.gov/home.nsf/EnhancedSearch?OpenForm&Seq=1&Type=F.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
DTN Weekly DDG Price Higher on Average 

   OMAHA (DTN) -- The domestic distillers dried grains (DDG) weekly average 
spot price from the 40 locations DTN contacted was up $2, to $142 per ton for 
the week ended Oct. 10. Prices were mixed from various sellers, but the 
strength in the cash basis kept the market firm in spite of the sharply lower 
close in corn futures Thursday.

   The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that ethanol 
inventory in the U.S. was drawn down 2 million barrels (bbl) to a 21.2 million 
bbl two-year low during the week ended Oct. 4. The steep draw came despite a 
small decline in blending activity and as domestic plant production edged 
higher.

   Based on the average of prices collected by DTN, the value of DDG relative 
to corn for the week ended Oct. 10 was at 104.56%. The value of DDG relative to 
soybean meal was at 46.69%. The cost per unit of protein for DDG was $5.26, 
compared to the cost per unit of protein for soybean meal at $6.40. 

   In its weekly export DDGS update, the U.S. Grains Council stated, "Barge CIF 
NOLA prices are slightly lower this week while FOB Gulf offers are steady to $1 
per metric ton (mt) lower. Rates for DDGS delivered via rail to the PNW are $2 
to $3/MT higher this week with the winter storm across the northwestern Plains 
complicating logistics. Prices for 40-foot containers to Southeast Asia are 
$5/MT lower this week for October shipment but are $1 to $2/MT higher for 
November/December shipment."


ALL PRICES SUBJECT TO CONFIRMATION             CURRENT       PREVIOUS   CHANGE
COMPANY         STATE                         10/11/2019     10/3/2019
Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300)
Subject         Missouri             Dry         $150          $150       $0
Subject                              Wet         $75            $75       $0
Show Me Ethanol LLC, Carrollton, MO (660-542-6493)
                Missouri Subject     Dry         $147          $142       $5
                                     Wet         $75            $72       $3
CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066)
Illinois        Dry                  $140        $140           $0
Indiana         Dry                  $140        $145           -$5
Iowa            Dry                  $135        $130           $5
Michigan        Dry                  $150        $145           $5
Minnesota       Dry                  $135        $130           $5
North Dakota    Dry                  $130        $130           $0
New York        Dry                  $150        $145           $5
South Dakota    Dry                  $125        $125           $0
MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253)
                Kansas               Dry         $145          $145       $0
POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799)
                Indiana              Dry         $150          $150       $0
                Iowa                 Dry         $145          $145       $0
                Michigan             Dry         $135          $135       $0
                Minnesota            Dry         $140          $145       -$5
                Missouri             Dry         $145          $145       $0
                Ohio                 Dry         $155          $155       $0
                South Dakota         Dry         $150          $150       $0
United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521)
Kansas          Dry                  $140        $145           -$5
                Wet                   $45        $55           -$10
Illinois        Dry                  $147        $147           $0
Nebraska        Dry                  $145        $145           $0
                Wet                   $45        $50            -$5
U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640)
                Illinois             Dry         $145          $140       $5
                Indiana              Dry         $155          $150       $5
                Iowa                 Dry         $140          $135       $5
                Michigan             Dry         $150          $145       $5
                Minnesota            Dry         $135          $130       $5
                Nebraska             Dry         $140          $135       $5
                New York             Dry         $165          $160       $5
                North Dakota         Dry         $140          $135       $5
                Ohio                 Dry         $155          $150       $5
                South Dakota         Dry         $135          $130       $5
                Wisconsin            Dry         $135          $130       $5
Valero Energy Corp, San Antonio Texas      (210-345-3362)   (210-345-3362)
Subject         Indiana              Dry         $136          $136       $0
Subject         Iowa                 Dry         $135          $135       $0
Subject         Minnesota            Dry         $140          $140       $0
Subject         Nebraska             Dry         $135          $135       $0
Subject         Ohio                 Dry         $145          $145       $0
Subject         South Dakota         Dry         $135          $135       $0
Subject         California           Dry         $200          $200       $0
Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074)
California      Dry                  $206        $203           $3
*Prices listed per ton.
                Weekly Average                   $142          $140       $2
The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN
collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and
California are not included in the averages.

                     VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL
                        Settlement Price:   Quote Date      Bushel  Short Ton
                                     Corn     10/10/2019   $3.8025      $135.80
                             Soybean Meal     10/10/2019   $304.10
            DDG Weekly Average Spot Price        $142.00
                                  DDG Value Relative to:   10/10       10/3
                                                    Corn   104.56%      100.11%
                                            Soybean Meal    46.69%       46.64%
                               Cost Per Unit of Protein:
                                                     DDG     $5.26        $5.15
                                            Soybean Meal     $6.40        $6.27
Notes:
Corn and soybean prices take from DTN Market Quotes. DDG price
represents the average spot price from Midwest companies
collected on Thursday afternoons. Soybean meal cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 47.5. DDG cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 27.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com 

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn 

******************************************************************************
2019 U.S Spring Wheat and Durum Harvest: The Good, the Bad, the Ugly

   The 2019 spring wheat and durum planting season was stalled by late-spring 
snow, along with constant rains in some of the key growing areas of the 
Northern Plains. Fast forward to September and early October and the same can 
be said for the harvest that never wants to end.

   Keith Brandt, general manager of Plains Grain and Agronomy LLC in Enderlin, 
North Dakota, said in late June that spring wheat acres in his area were down 
10% to 12% from what farmers had intended to plant. "There is a big range in 
planting dates of April 23 to June 11. Because of the cool and damp conditions, 
wheat planted by mid-May looks very good and has decent potential. The balance 
will be 10 to 15 bushels per acre (bpa) less on yield."

   Brandt said on Oct. 3 that the 2019 crop was "certainly not the fanciest 
wheat crop we have ever harvested and we are still not 100% done with 1% to 2% 
of standing wheat left. We have an average yield of 50-55 bushels per acre, 
14.5% protein and grading No. 2NS, average 270 falling numbers and average 2.7 
vomitoxin." 

   Brandt said the crop is tough to market because it's all commingled due to 
most of the crop coming in wet and having to be dried. "Markets seems to handle 
falling numbers easier than vomitoxin and we can use the low falling numbers 
for delivery wheat. A lot of western and northern North Dakota got most of 
their crop off in good condition before this terrible weather set in. Will be 
an adequate supply of milling wheat. Just have to find that number where they 
will sell."

   As of Sept. 30, Minnesota Department of Ag is estimating that 3% of 
Minnesota wheat is still unharvested. "It is hard to describe this year's 
spring wheat harvest without using four-letter words," said Tim Dufault, of 
Crookston, Minnesota. "The harvest on our farm lasted 31 days; there were nine 
days of measurable rain and a stretch of 14 days where it was just cool and 
damp and unfit to harvest. Yields in northwest Minnesota were averaging over 70 
bpa with 60-pound-plus test weights. Proteins varied by variety but much of the 
crop was over 14%. Then, as the rain events started to take their toll, test 
weights started to drop, sprout damage showed up and the term 'falling numbers' 
returned to farmer's vocabulary. Elevators soon stopped buying wheat under 200 
falling numbers. The last couple of fields for us averaged about 55 bpa, 
58-pound test weight and the falling numbers were down to 66."

   Dufault, who is a board member on the Minnesota Wheat Research and Promotion 
Council, said that people he has visited with are estimating that 25% of the 
hard red spring crop will be feed wheat. "Wheat yield overall should be a 
little bit above average. In a nutshell, this year's wheat was poor quality, 
not worth anything, but there was a lot of it," Dufault added.

   Nathan Olsonawski, of Hallock, Minnesota, said, "We had average yield and 
good quality to start with but as the wet weather set in, quality took a big 
hit, especially with falling numbers."

   "Harvest went well," said Kerry Baldwin, of Hope, North Dakota. "Finished up 
around the 23rd of August and yields were slightly below average, around the 
low 50s. Quality was good, falling numbers around 350, test weight was 62 to 64 
lbs. Protein was in the 14.5% range on average. We took a dime discount on one 
quarter section of wheat because the vomitoxin was around 2 parts per million 
(ppm) while the other quarter section had no discount. We were fortunate to get 
our wheat harvested when we did. There was a lot of wheat harvested in 
September and still some left now in October for some people."

   "This year's spring wheat crop was a challenge from start to finish," said 
Tim Luken, manager at Oahe Grain, in Onida, South Dakota. "Planting back in 
April through May was very slow going due to the early April blizzard dumping 
30 inches of snow and then the addition of all the weekly rain events we had. 
This weather set up the tone for the rest of the growing season."

   Sully County usually starts spring wheat harvest the third week of July, but 
this year Luken said harvest didn't start until Aug. 6 or almost two weeks 
later. "We finally finished around Sept. 20 and we are usually done by second 
week of August. Surprisingly, the quality of our spring wheat was good; yes, 
there was scab present this year (usually don't see it here) and that was due 
to rain events we had during the flowering of the wheat.  

   "With all the rain we had this year on a weekly basis from start to finish, 
I was very pleased with quality. I feel the reason we had good quality is that 
the planted crop was so spread out in the spring, delaying the ripening of the 
crop before it could be harvested. When it did rain, it didn't hurt the later 
crops and the crops that were being harvested were taken off with minimal days 
of rain, which didn't take a toll on quality. Sprout damage was very isolated 
in certain areas. Overall, we are very happy because it could have been much 
worse. At the elevator, we took in 643,000 bushels with protein average around 
15% and average test weight was 59.6 lbs."

   Jerry Cope, who does the grain marketing for Dakota Mill and Grain Inc. in 
Rapid City, South Dakota, said that their spring wheat acres were down over 50% 
mainly due to the late wet spring that prevented planting more acres.  "Acreage 
intentions had been higher than a year ago mainly to keep within rotations," 
said Cope.

   "Wheat that was planted matured early enough to escape most of the damage," 
said Cope. "Harvested wheat overall has test weights of 59 lbs to 60-plus lbs 
and quality was good. Vomitoxin was easily under 2.0 ppm, very little damage 
and falling numbers were above 300. The exception was East River where 
vomitoxin was more common. Rain did slow harvest and the weed growth created 
high dockage and in some cases, dropped color from northern to red spring wheat.

   "There is frustration among customers with red spring wheat showing no 
vomitoxin, no sprout and high falling numbers being lumped in the same 
non-milling category as the sprouted, low falling numbers wheat in North Dakota 
and Canada. The same severe discounts for a "color only" issue and not a USDA 
grade factor is hard to explain."

   There are three subclasses for U.S. hard red spring (HRS) wheat. U.S. Wheat 
Associates states that, "subclass is a separate marketing factor based on the 
number of kernels with a complete, hard and vitreous endosperm." Flour milled 
from HRS wheat with greater percentages of dark, hard, vitreous (DHV) kernel 
shows higher water absorption capacity for bread making.

   The three classes are: dark northern spring (DNS) consisting of 75% or more 
dark, hard vitreous kernels; northern spring (NS), between 25 and 74% dark, 
hard vitreous kernels; and red spring (RS), less than 25% dark, hard, vitreous 
kernels. 

   Cope added that, "Movement has been better than the crop size would indicate 
as growers make room for a big fall crop and sell for cash needs. Expect spring 
wheat movement to stop once row crop harvest begins."

   A farmer in eastern South Dakota said that he finished up harvest on Aug. 30 
and yields were average to slightly below average with a lot of lodging, which 
cost him yield and adversely affected quality. He noted that despite the fact 
he finished up before the big rains hit in early to mid-September, there was 
still plenty of rain and many humid nights and mornings after the crop ripened 
in August, which resulted in some sprouting.

   "Test weights started out in the 62- to 63-pound area, but after the rain we 
lost test weight and most of it will be in the 58-59 range," he said "Falling 
numbers values are all over the place ranging from the low 200s to low 300s, 
but I'm afraid most of it is going to be in that 225-275 range. Vomitoxin 
levels so far have been hovering around 2.0 ppm but have heard reports of 5.0 
ppm and higher."

   Allan Klain, who farms northwest of Turtle Lake, North Dakota, said that 
yields and quality were good for the most part early on. "We were hand to mouth 
with precipitation until late August, but since then have received 12.5 inches 
of rain. Quality issues with low falling numbers are a real problem with any 
wheat harvested after Sept. 10. 

   "We have 10,000 bushels of hailed "junk" wheat that we binned and haven't 
tested yet. Our hired man went to Canada on Sept. 9 and estimated 70% of the 
wheat was still out from Minot north. All in all, we were slightly above 
average yield in the 50s on wheat. We will start beans Oct. 7 ahead of a 
forecast of 8-plus inches of snow expected in four days. Will be filling trucks 
on road with cart as it is way too soft in field," said Klain.

   As the delays in harvest moved deep into September and quality continued to 
deteriorate, the cash price increased. The DTN National Hard Red Spring Wheat 
Index on Sept. 1 was at $4.33 and rose to $5.03 by Oct. 1. The Minneapolis spot 
basis moved higher in late-September when there were few milling cars showing 
up for sale, but as more cars came to market recently, the spot basis began to 
weaken. However, once farmers start soybean and corn harvest, car counts on the 
spot market will likely decrease.

   LATE DURUM CROP IN BAD SHAPE

   The recent USDA crop progress report estimated that 78% of the North Dakota 
durum crop and 55% of the Montana crop had been harvested by the end of 
September. The North Dakota Wheat Commission said that, "as with spring wheat, 
it is likely some of the durum crop simply won't be harvested and quality on 
the remaining crop will be compromised."

   North Dakota farmers on social media disagree with the USDA reporting that 
78% of durum is harvested. Many said they haven't turned a wheel in more than a 
week and it might be another week before they get going. One farmer noted that 
he was only 35% done on durum and knows of other farmers who hadn't even 
started yet and may end up tilling the crop up.

   BJ Wehrman, of Ambrose, North Dakota, said he lives in the heart of durum 
country and there is more left to combine than has been cut. "If 50% has been 
cut I would be surprised, and it's not 'backyarditis' because it extends all 
the way to the South Dakota border and west a couple hundred miles into Montana.

   "It's not good up here. Canola is sprouting, wheat is sprouting and starting 
to lay down. Have even heard of some flax and safflower sprouting also. I 
haven't turned a wheel in nine days. Started harvest approximately Aug. 21 and 
I don't think we have had more than three days of work in a row," said Wehrman. 
"We are in a historically strong durum area, but a lot of guys have moved away 
from that over the last eight years or so and shifted to spring wheat since 
quality is easier to maintain, but it's getting tougher and tougher each year 
to even want to plant much wheat, let alone durum."

   Wehrman added that, "This is the first year on our farm in probably 50 years 
that we had zero acres of durum and man, am I glad we didn't. We pushed hard 
and got all our spring wheat off with only one small rain on it. If we had 
durum, it would still be in field, as we normally plant durum last, around May 
20, and it wouldn't have been off yet."

   Cash durum prices have been climbing and are in the $8.00-plus range (basis 
delivered Chicago/beyond) and continue to rise. Some mill buyers said that 
there aren't many offers in the U.S. or even Canada; Canadian durum is in rough 
or even worse shape.

   When I traded durum in the past and there was a quality issue, farmers with 
good milling quality would "padlock" their durum bins and bide their time until 
they needed cash.

   A few farmers I have talked with the past few weeks have mentioned that they 
are weighing whether or not to file a crop insurance claim because of the poor 
quality issues in the wheat crop, but said it's not an easy decision because of 
how it would affect their actual production history yield (APH) going forward.

   This has been a rough year for many farmers and it's going to get worse. DTN 
Senior Ag Meteorologist Bryce Anderson noted in his Oct. 7 forecast that "a 
season-ending freeze is indicated for the Northern and western Plains and the 
northwestern Midwest this week, along with harvest-disrupting rain and snow."

   National Weather Service's Bismarck, North Dakota office has indicated 
widespread, accumulating snow beginning Oct. 9, and possibly continuing through 
Friday in western and central North Dakota. This will be a knife through the 
hearts of farmers in those areas.

   Luken summed it up well: "This is the longest small grain harvest I have 
ever seen in the 40 years I have been in this business. I hope Mother Nature 
gives us a break for the 2020 growing season because we really need one."

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
Will the 13th US-China Trade Meeting Be the 'Lucky One?'

   There is increased focus and anticipation heading into next week's trade 
talks with China. In the livestock industry, the pork market has the most at 
stake for things to go well. Anticipation of not only increased trade, but also 
an open invitation to expand pork trade into a market where demand is high and 
supplies continue to fall is keeping traders, and the industry as a whole, on 
pins and needles. 

   With the trade war waging on over the last year and concerns of African 
swine fever in China decimating pork production there, focus is on the need to 
increase imports into China. Although China imports of pork in general have 
posted significant gains in 2019, it has been evident that the U.S. is not on 
the top of any supplier lists due to the ongoing trade war -- and this may not 
change in the near future. 

   Given the lack of success and progress during the previous meetings between 
the two countries, it is fair to say that a more realistic expectation for the 
meetings would be for "moderate progress" to be made and hopefully plans to 
meet again in the near future. However, expectations going into this meeting 
range from no progress to an actual trade agreement. The market reaction to any 
of these scenarios, especially in the lean hog complex, is uncertain. The 
market has moved in a volatile fashion based on the rumors of China pork trade 
and has been disappointed by the lack of positive statements over the past 
months. 

   Over the past year, lean hog futures prices have gyrated within a 
$40-per-cwt-wide trading range (Oct. 19, 2018, at $51.60 to May 17, 2019, at 
$92.37 per cwt). The need for China to feed its population combined with the 
country's continued decision not to tap into U.S. pork supplies only adds 
volatility to the market. 

   The market movements are expected to increase over the next few days as more 
news coverage will surround the trade talks, and hopes for a positive deal will 
be high. More than likely, this is not a situation that can be ironed out in 
the next meeting, although both sides seem to have increased incentive to make 
significant progress. However, both sides are needing to create "hope" that a 
viable attempt will be seen, and this will likely spark some underlying support 
through the entire hog complex.

   The issues of the trade deal are significant and fundamentally tied to each 
country's economy and how the government of each country conducts business. 
However, the repercussions continue to be felt by the core of the agriculture 
industry and by producers whose main desire and passion is to provide food in 
order to feed the world. 

   No matter what happens next week (or in future months), the ag industry will 
survive due to the resilience of the amazing producers at its core. But the 
implications will also be significant not only to the economy, but specifically 
to the grain and livestock industries. 

   So, no matter if the 13th meeting is viewed as "good luck" or "bad luck," 
there will be anxious eyes watching every detail concerning the meeting, as 
hopes for a positive outcome develop. 

   Rick Kment can be reached at Rick.Kment@dtn.com  

******************************************************************************
DTN Weekly Average DDG Price Slightly Higher

   OMAHA (DTN) -- The domestic distillers dried grains (DDG) weekly average 
spot price from the 40 locations DTN contacted was up $1, to $140 per ton, for 
the week ended Oct. 3. Prices were mixed from various sellers, but the strength 
in the cash has kept the market firm overall. 

   The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that for the 
week ended Sept. 27, ethanol plant production increased 15,000 barrels per day 
(bpd) or 1.6% from a more than 3-1/2 year low to 958,000 bpd, which is 57,000 
bpd or 5.6% below the year-ago operating rate for the same week. Midwest 
producers accounted for 10,000 bpd of the weekly increase in output.

   Based on the average of prices collected by DTN, the value of DDG relative 
to corn for the week ended Oct. 3 was at 100.11%. The value of DDG relative to 
soybean meal was at 46.64%. The cost per unit of protein for DDG was $5.15, 
compared to the cost per unit of protein for soybean meal at $6.27. 

   In its weekly export DDGS update, the U.S. Grains Council stated, "The DDGS 
export market is much the same as last week with FOB Gulf values declining 
slightly and 40-foot containers to Southeast Asia steady at $239 per metric 
ton. The move higher in soybean meal futures has reportedly prompted some 
international buyers to take a more cautious approach. Still, with DDGS 
supplies expected to remain tighter through the fall, exporters are defending 
asking prices."


ALL PRICES SUBJECT TO CONFIRMATION             CURRENT      PREVIOUS    CHANGE
COMPANY   STATE                               10/3/2019     9/19/2019
Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300)
          Missouri              Dry             $150          $140       $10
                                Wet              $75           $70        $5
Show Me Ethanol LLC, Carrollton, MO (660-542-6493)
          Missouri Subject      Dry             $142          $142        $0
                                Wet              $72           $72        $0
CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066)
          Illinois              Dry             $140          $145       -$5
          Indiana               Dry             $145          $145        $0
          Iowa                  Dry             $130          $130        $0
          Michigan              Dry             $145          $150       -$5
          Minnesota             Dry             $130          $130        $0
          North Dakota          Dry             $130          $130        $0
          New York              Dry             $145          $145        $0
          South Dakota          Dry             $125          $125        $0
MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253)
          Kansas                Dry             $145          $135       $10
POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799)
          Indiana               Dry             $150          $155       -$5
          Iowa                  Dry             $145          $145        $0
          Michigan              Dry             $135          $135        $0
          Minnesota             Dry             $145          $140        $5
          Missouri              Dry             $145          $150       -$5
          Ohio                  Dry             $155          $150        $5
          South Dakota          Dry             $150          $145        $5
United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521)
          Kansas                Dry             $145          $150       -$5
                                Wet              $55           $60       -$5
          Illinois              Dry             $147          $145        $2
          Nebraska              Dry             $145          $145        $0
                                Wet              $50           $50        $0
U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640)
          Illinois              Dry             $140          $140        $0
          Indiana               Dry             $150          $145        $5
          Iowa                  Dry             $135          $135        $0
          Michigan              Dry             $145          $145        $0
          Minnesota             Dry             $130          $130        $0
          Nebraska              Dry             $135          $130        $5
          New York              Dry             $160          $150       $10
          North Dakota          Dry             $135          $135        $0
          Ohio                  Dry             $150          $150        $0
          South Dakota          Dry             $130          $130        $0
          Wisconsin             Dry             $130          $130        $0
Valero Energy Corp, San Antonio Texas      (210-345-3362)  (210-345-3362)
          Indiana               Dry             $136          $136        $0
          Iowa                  Dry             $135          $125       $10
          Minnesota             Dry             $140          $120       $20
          Nebraska              Dry             $135          $135        $0
          Ohio                  Dry             $145          $140        $5
          South Dakota          Dry             $135          $128        $7
          California            Dry             $200          $195        $5
Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074)
          California            Dry             $203          $200        $3
*Prices listed per ton.
          Weekly Average                        $140          $139        $1
The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN
collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and
California are not included in the averages.

                 VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL
               Settlement Price: Quote Date         Bushel  Short Ton
                            Corn  10/3/2019        $3.8875     $138.84
                    Soybean Meal  10/3/2019        $298.00
   DDG Weekly Average Spot Price   $140.00
                     DDG Value Relative to:      10/3         9/19
                                       Corn        100.11%     104.41%
                               Soybean Meal         46.64%      47.57%
                  Cost Per Unit of Protein:
                                        DDG          $5.15       $5.15
                               Soybean Meal          $6.27       $6.15
Notes:
Corn and soybean prices take from DTN Market Quotes. DDG price
represents the average spot price from Midwest companies
collected on Thursday afternoons. Soybean meal cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 47.5. DDG cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 27.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
It's a Wrap! 2019 Hard Red Winter Wheat Harvest Finally Ends

   In their Sept. 6 weekly harvest report, the U.S. Wheat Association (USW) 
noted that the 2019 hard red winter (HRW) wheat harvest was winding down. 
Harvest was 95% complete in Montana, 99% in Washington and 96% in Idaho. 
Harvest was running slow in those areas, as it was in most of the 
winter-wheat-growing areas this year.

   USW noted that the 2019 crop overall graded a #1 HRW milling quality, 11.3% 
protein, 60.8 test weight, 0.1 foreign material, 0.3 damage, 0.8 shrunk and 
broken kernels for a total defect count of 1.2. That grade is very similar to 
last year, except that the protein average for the 2018 crop was at 12.3%. 
Remember that flour mills' flavor of choice is 12% protein when it comes to 
making flour. A mill buyer told me that, while flour mills make a 13% protein 
flour, the most common is a "mid-mix," 12% protein flour. One thing to note is 
that 1% of the wheat protein is lost in the flour-making process, meaning mills 
may be blending this year due to the low-protein crop.

   The spread between protein premiums has been widening due to the 
lower-protein crop produced this year. The Sept. 20 Kansas City HRW spot market 
showed the high side of 11.2% at +98KCZ and the high side of 11.4% protein 
through 11.8% protein at +135KCZ. The high side of 12% protein through 12.4% 
was at +135KCZ and then jumps to +182KCZ for the high side of 12.6% through 
12.8%. The premium for 13% through 14% was quoted at +190 for the high side. 

   DIFFERENT AREAS PRODUCED DIFFERENT CROP

   Tim Luken, manager at Oahe Grain in Onida, South Dakota, told me the HRW 
harvest there started July 23, about two weeks later than normal, and ended 
about one month later due to weekly rain events. 

   "This was a war with Mother Nature, but overall, our crop wasn't the end of 
the world," Luken said. "Yes, almost all the bushels had some sort of tombstone 
or scab damage, and we did lose test weight due to rains. Some wheat was 61 
pounds at the start, and by the time the same field was done, test weight was 
down to 56 pounds.

   "As for the higher-damage crop, we told the producer to take it home and 
take samples out of each load to come up with a composite sample of the field 
or bin. There are those bushels on the farm we will deal with later in the 
marketing season. Vomitoxin levels on loads we dumped here were within the 2 
ppm (parts per million) or less range. Some of the samples we sent in to be 
officially graded were from 2.5 ppm to over 5 ppm. I did hear some delusional 
samples coming back as high as 19% vomitoxin that insurance companies had sent 
in to be tested. I have heard yields at 55 to 100 bushels per acre (bpa), but 
65 bpa to 70 bpa was more common. In our elevator, we took in 1.2 million 
bushels and averaged 60 pounds 12.7% protein and 12.3 moisture."

   Scott Van Allen, who farms in Sumner County, Kansas, and is a Kansas Wheat 
Commissioner, told me that the 2019 winter wheat harvest was one for the record 
books for south-central Kansas. 

   "It started off with record amount of rain in April, May and June, which 
delayed harvest approximately two to three weeks," Van Allen said. "When you 
combine that with the late planting last fall because of rain, it was a pretty 
mediocre crop overall. Yields were mostly average with some below average, but 
quality was surprisingly good with 62 to 64 pound test weights and protein in 
the 11% range." 

   In north-central Texas, wheat harvest ran in to some rain and humidity early 
on, but Lindsay Kimbrell of Kimbrell Farms told me that their crop was "above 
average for around our area, with average protein and quality."

   Justin Gilpin, CEO of Kansas Wheat, said, "We had excellent yields out in 
western Kansas, but not so good in the central corridor that were impacted by 
flooding and too much moisture." 

   Kansas Wheat reported in their final harvest report that proteins varied by 
location. 

   "In the west, proteins were well below average, ranging from 10.5% to 11.5%, 
with spotted areas of 12%," Kansas Wheat said in their report. "In central and 
south-central Kansas, proteins ranged from 10.5% to 12%, which is above a 
normal average of 10.5% to 11%." 

   In their July 26 weekly harvest update, USW noted that HRW harvest was 
finally 100% complete in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. 

   WILL LOWER PRICES DETER PLANTED ACRES THIS FALL?

   The 2020 hard red winter crop insurance price has been set at $4.35 per 
bushel versus $5.74 last year, making the 2020 hard red winter wheat price the 
lowest crop insurance price since 2006 at $3.52 per bushel. That lower price 
could push planted acres in Kansas and other states to another historical low.

   Van Allen said there will definitely be fewer acres of wheat planted in 
Sumner County. 

   "I am personally planting the fewest acres I have since I started farming 
40-plus years ago," he said. "Cash prices below $4 per bushel and 2020 prices 
not much better are the main reason." 

   "Our acres will probably be flat in north-central Texas," said Kimbrell. "We 
will likely plant the same as same as last season. It worked well for us this 
year, so hopefully if weather allows, we'll do the same."

   "Winter wheat planting in South Dakota will be interesting," said Luken. 
"Some fields are so saturated that they can't even think to get them planted. I 
will say planting will be down and that is due to fields being too wet. I am 
sure the producer will try to get as much planted as they can with what drier 
fields they can get into. Wheat is planted in our area to spread the workload 
and also rotation." 

   "I tend to think with current economics, low cash wheat prices and low 
insurance price, there is less incentive to plant HRW in the Southern Plains," 
said Gilpin. "Also, we are estimating because of the good moisture this spring 
and interest in the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) program, we saw more 
acres get planted to corn and less acres of fallow than we've maybe ever had in 
western Kansas. Those fallow acres in western Kansas that were planted to a 
spring crop instead of waiting for this fall to plant winter wheat leads me to 
think there will be lower wheat planted acres in western Kansas.

   "It is getting pretty dry here, so that will be a factor farmers also 
consider. If we are on the verge of a more average-type year with less rain, 
there may be some interest in double cropping in central Kansas if this fall 
harvest of other crops happens in a timely manner."

   Gilpin added, "Wheat is an important crop for Kansas farmers as the added 
benefits of weed control in rotation, crop residue for soil health and 
protection. Improved varieties on the market recently from public and private 
programs, with improved yield potential, are positives for growers preparing 
for wheat seeding this fall."

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com 

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
DTN Weekly Average DDG Price Higher

   OMAHA (DTN) -- The domestic distillers dried grains (DDG) weekly average 
spot price from the 40 locations DTN contacted was up $3 on average, to $139 
per ton, for the week ended Sept. 19. The higher cash corn price is giving 
support to DDG prices. 

   In addition, with the closing of another ethanol plant, DDG supplies are 
getting tight in some states. In the past week, Siouxland Energy Cooperative in 
Sioux Center, Iowa, idled production at its 90-million-gallon corn-ethanol 
plant, bringing the number of idled plants so far this year to more than 15. 
These closures and other slowdowns have also kept the DDG prices firm.

   The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that for the 
week ended Sept. 13, ethanol production was at 1.003 million barrels per day 
(bpd), a five-month low. Stocks were increased by 700,000 barrels (bbl) from an 
11-week low to 23.2 million bbl. Some merchandisers noted that ethanol margins 
improved for the week due to shutdowns reducing the abundant supply of ethanol.

   Based on the average of prices collected by DTN, the value of DDG relative 
to corn for the week ended Sept. 19 was at 104.41%. The value of DDG relative 
to soybean meal was at 47.57%. The cost per unit of protein for DDG was $5.15, 
compared to the cost per unit of protein for soybean meal at $6.15. 

   In its weekly export DDGS update, the U.S. Grains Council stated, "FOB Gulf 
DDGS prices are slightly ($3/mt) lower this week for October shipment while 
U.S. rail rates have increased $2/mt on average. Asking prices for 40-foot 
containers to Southeast Asia are up $4/mt to $239/mt following last week's 
active inquiries."


ALL PRICES SUBJECT TO CONFIRMATION       CURRENT     CURRENT  CHANGE
                                                      9/12/
COMPANY       STATE                     9/19/2019      2019
Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300)
              Missouri           Dry       $140        $145    -$5
                                 Wet       $70         $73     -$3
Show Me Ethanol LLC, Carrollton, MO (660-542-6493)
              Missouri Subject   Dry       $142        $140     $2
                                 Wet       $72         $72      $0
CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066)
Illinois      Dry                $145      $145         $0
Indiana       Dry                $145      $145         $0
Iowa          Dry                $130      $130         $0
Michigan      Dry                $150      $150         $0
Minnesota     Dry                $130      $130         $0
North Dakota  Dry                $130      $130         $0
New York      Dry                $145      $145         $0
South Dakota  Dry                $125      $125         $0
MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253)
              Kansas             Dry       $135        $135     $0
POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799)
              Indiana            Dry       $155        $150     $5
              Iowa               Dry       $145        $135    $10
              Michigan           Dry       $135        $135     $0
              Minnesota          Dry       $140        $135     $5
              Missouri           Dry       $150        $150     $0
              Ohio               Dry       $150        $145     $5
              South Dakota       Dry       $145        $140     $5
United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521)
Kansas        Dry                $150      $145         $5
              Wet                $60       $55          $5
Illinois      Dry                $145      $143         $2
Nebraska      Dry                $145      $140         $5
              Wet                $50       $45          $5
U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640)
              Illinois           Dry       $140        $135     $5
              Indiana            Dry       $145        $140     $5
              Iowa               Dry       $135        $130     $5
              Michigan           Dry       $145        $135    $10
              Minnesota          Dry       $130        $125     $5
              Nebraska           Dry       $130        $130     $0
              New York           Dry       $150        $150     $0
              North Dakota       Dry       $135        $135     $0
              Ohio               Dry       $150        $145     $5
              South Dakota       Dry       $130        $125     $5
              Wisconsin          Dry       $130        $130     $0
Valero Energy Corp, San Antonio Texas (210-345-3362) (210-345-3362)
subject       Indiana            Dry       $136        $136     $0
subject       Iowa               Dry       $125        $125     $0
subject       Minnesota          Dry       $120        $120     $0
subject       Nebraska           Dry       $135        $135     $0
subject       Ohio               Dry       $140        $140     $0
subject       South Dakota       Dry       $128        $128     $0
subject       California         Dry       $195        $195     $0
Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074)
California    Dry                $200      $205        -$5
*Prices listed per ton.
              Weekly Average               $139        $136     $3
The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN
collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and
California are not included in the averages.

             VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL
               Settlement Price: Quote Date   Bushel Short Ton
                            Corn   9/19/2019 $3.7275   $133.13
                    Soybean Meal   9/19/2019 $292.20
   DDG Weekly Average Spot Price     $139.00
                      DDG Value Relative to:   9/5      9/5
                                        Corn 104.41%   107.41%
                                Soybean Meal  47.57%    45.93%
                   Cost Per Unit of Protein:
                                         DDG   $5.15     $5.04
                                Soybean Meal   $6.15     $6.23
Notes:
Corn and soybean prices take from DTN Market Quotes. DDG price
represents the average spot price from Midwest companies
collected on Thursday afternoons. Soybean meal cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 47.5. DDG cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 27.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
Key Columbia River Lock Shutdown Stops All Barges Headed for Export

   The Columbia-Snake River System in the Pacific Northwest is the nation's 
single largest wheat export gateway, transporting over 50% of all U.S. wheat to 
markets overseas.

   That all came to a temporary, but very significant, stoppage at the 
Bonneville Lock and Dam, located about 40 miles northeast of Portland, Oregon. 
On Thursday, Sept. 5, the lock operators observed issues closing the lock gate 
and determined that continued operation posed risks of further damage.

   The next day, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Portland Division issued a 
contract to inspect and repair the lock after engineers determined the lock had 
a leak, the Corps noted on its website. On Sept. 7, engineers and experts 
drained and inspected the lock to assess the needed repairs as Corps 
contractors prepared to repair the lock.

   On Sept. 8, the Corps team determined that the concrete sill (a narrow 
horizontal ledge protruding a short way into the chamber from below the upper 
gates) under the downstream gate was the cause of the issue. 

   "We've started demolition of the damaged sill, which is expected to be 
completed Tuesday, Sept. 10. After cleanup of the demolition debris, we can 
begin the repairs necessary to restore the lock to operation," the Corps stated 
on its website. 

   The Corps started demolition of the damaged concrete sill at the downstream 
end of the navigation lock, and by Sept. 12, demolition and cleanup of the sill 
was complete and drilling through concrete began, noted the Corps.

   The final determination and timeline for the repairs came in a Sept. 11 
statement by the Portland Engineer District, saying the lock will return to 
service at 10 a.m. on Sept. 30. 

   "This lock closure is significant, which is why our engineers, experts and 
contractors are working tirelessly to ensure we get the locks back in service 
as quickly as possible," Portland District Commander Col. Aaron Dorf stated in 
a Sept. 11 news release. "It is not lost on anyone in the Portland District 
that this outage has tremendous impacts to Columbia River users. Between now 
and Sept. 30, our teams will be working around the clock to construct the new 
sill to restore Columbia River traffic."

   IMPACT ON FARMERS AND EXPORTERS

   I spoke with Bill Flory, an Idaho farmer who grows soft white wheat and malt 
barley in Winchester and Claremont, on Saturday. As we were talking, he told me 
he was just finishing his wheat harvest because rains had delayed it. I asked 
him if he was affected yet by the lock closure, and he told me that, at this 
time, he was not. 

   Flory takes his wheat to a river terminal in Lewiston, Idaho, where it then 
heads to the PNW for export. 

   "We normally have a distinct advantage here in our ability to move grain 
from combine to an export vessel within three to four days," said Flory. 

   "The Corps does an excellent job of repair maintenance, but this latest 
closure (at Bonneville) was certainly unexpected," added Flory. "Let's hope to 
get this current repair done on schedule, because there are many barges 
upstream ready to come down." 

   I spoke with an exporter who relies on those barges to fill waiting vessels. 
He said he expects to see more double berthing and increases to both rail and 
vessel demurrage, while the logistics of loading vessels will be much more 
difficult. 

   "Certainly, from an inland shipper standpoint, a force majeure would be 
applicable, but from an exporter standpoint, I don't see it applying because 
rail is available," he said.

   Within the PNW, there are now three BNSF shuttle loaders and one UP larger 
train loading station, so shipments could shift in that direction depending on 
the logistics of possibly handling the surplus, noted the exporter.

   "Switching from barge to rail will increase costs of shipping for some 
exporters and lower margins as well," the exporter said. 

   The soft white wheat harvest is mainly finished, with the exception of the 
high line of Washington. That area is where the majority of the effect of the 
lock closure could be felt on farmers, unless rail cars are available to move 
the crop. One spot that can load out shuttles in that area is the Highline 
Grain terminal at Four Lakes, Washington.

   INFRASTRUCTURE MUST BECOME A PRIORITY

   Flory and I talked about the state of all the locks and dams on the entire 
U.S. river system. We both agreed it is imperative a new infrastructure plan 
becomes a reality, with enough money allocated to the USACE before more aging 
locks and dams fall apart and create monetary losses for farmers if they lose 
their ability to ship to the river.

   The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has said in the past that it is "unable to 
adequately fund maintenance activities to ensure the navigation system operates 
at an acceptable level of performance." A failure of significant duration, 
especially during and right after harvest, would have a devastating impact on 
shipments of agriculture products and likely cause farmers to lose money, 
affecting their profitability. Shippers and exporters, as well as barge lines, 
would also experience monetary losses.

   A Jan. 3, 2018, Washington Post article quoted President Donald Trump: 
"Infrastructure is by far the easiest," the president said Dec. 22, 2017 during 
the bill signing for the tax overhaul. "I could've started with infrastructure; 
I actually wanted to save the easy one for the one down the road. So we'll be 
having that done pretty quickly." 

   Fast forward to this past spring when President Trump was set to meet with 
Democratic leaders at the White House to discuss details of a $2 trillion 
spending bill for U.S. infrastructure. The meeting actually took place, but 
CNBC reported in a May 22, 2019, article that President Trump walked out of the 
meeting. He told reporters in the Rose Garden, "I walked into the room and I 
told Sen. Schumer and Speaker Pelosi that I want to do infrastructure, but we 
can't do it under these circumstances." The circumstances he spoke of were that 
the Democrats supported the Special Counsel investigation of Russian 
interference in the 2016 U.S. elections and suspicious links between Trump 
associates and Russian officials, conducted by special prosecutor Robert 
Mueller.

   In the meantime, our aging U.S. lock-and-dam system on U.S. waterways is 
deteriorating and is in dire need of permanent repair or replacement. Most of 
the locks and dams were built in the 1930s, and engineers estimated their 
lifespan at 50 years. The Corps constantly has to put Band-Aids on some of 
those locks that have deteriorated, because of the budget constraints to do 
complete replacement. 

   Tom Russell, Russell Marine Group with locations in New Orleans and 
Portland, said it best when describing the negative effect on commerce due to 
the many closures we have seen and continue to see on the U.S. River system so 
far in 2019: "The dependability of the U.S. conveyor belt is in question ... 
big time now."

   Here is the Sept. 11 news release from the Portland District about the 
closure: 
https://www.nwp.usace.army.mil/Media/News/Article/1957794/corps-of-engineers-off
icials-bonneville-navigation-lock-to-return-to-service-se/.

   Here is a Columbia-Snake River fact sheet showing where the Bonneville Lock 
and Dam is located: http://www.dtn.com/ag/assets/CSRS.pdf.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
DTN Weekly Average DDG Price Stronger

   OMAHA (DTN) -- The domestic distillers dried grains (DDG) weekly average 
spot price from the 40 locations DTN contacted was up $2 on average, to $136 
per ton, for the week ended Sept. 12. The cash corn price rallied this week, 
giving some support to DDG prices, along with tight supplies in areas where 
plants have slowed or shut down.

   The Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted ethanol supply in the U.S 
dropped more than 1 million barrels in the first week of September despite a 
fourth straight week of decline in net inputs by refiners and blenders, a 
measure of demand. EIA also said plant production rose 1% last week.

   Based on the average of prices collected by DTN, the value of DDG relative 
to corn for the week ended Sept. 12 was at 107.41%. The value of DDG relative 
to soybean meal was at 45.93%. The cost per unit of protein for DDG was $5.04, 
compared to the cost per unit of protein for soybean meal at $6.23. 

   In its weekly export DDGS update, the U.S. Grains Council stated, "FOB Gulf 
DDGS prices are slightly ($2/metric ton) lower this week while U.S. rail rates 
have increased $3/mt on average. Asking prices for 40-foot containers to 
Southeast Asia are up $3/mt to $235/mt following last week's active inquiries."


ALL PRICES SUBJECT TO CONFIRMATION       CURRENT     PREVIOUS CHANGE
COMPANY       STATE                     9/12/2019    9/5/2019
Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300)
              Missouri           Dry       $145        $140     $5
                                 Wet       $73         $70      $3
Show Me Ethanol LLC, Carrollton, MO (660-542-6493)
              Missouri Subject   Dry       $140        $140     $0
                                 Wet       $72         $72      $0
CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066)
Illinois      Dry                $145      $140         $5
Indiana       Dry                $145      $140         $5
Iowa          Dry                $130      $125         $5
Michigan      Dry                $150      $145         $5
Minnesota     Dry                $130      $125         $5
North Dakota  Dry                $130      $125         $5
New York      Dry                $145      $140         $5
South Dakota  Dry                $125      $120         $5
MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253)
              Kansas             Dry       $135        $135     $0
POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799)
              Indiana            Dry       $150        $145     $5
              Iowa               Dry       $135        $135     $0
              Michigan           Dry       $135        $125    $10
              Minnesota          Dry       $135        $130     $5
              Missouri           Dry       $150        $150     $0
              Ohio               Dry       $145        $140     $5
              South Dakota       Dry       $140        $135     $5
United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521)
Kansas        Dry                $145      $135        $10
              Wet                $55       $40         $15
Illinois      Dry                $143      $140         $3
Nebraska      Dry                $140      $135         $5
              Wet                $45       $40          $5
U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640)
              Illinois           Dry       $135        $135     $0
              Indiana            Dry       $140        $140     $0
              Iowa               Dry       $130        $130     $0
              Michigan           Dry       $135        $135     $0
              Minnesota          Dry       $125        $125     $0
              Nebraska           Dry       $130        $130     $0
              New York           Dry       $150        $150     $0
              North Dakota       Dry       $135        $135     $0
              Ohio               Dry       $145        $145     $0
              South Dakota       Dry       $125        $125     $0
              Wisconsin          Dry       $130        $130     $0
Valero Energy Corp, San Antonio Texas (210-345-3362) (210-345-3362)
Indiana       Dry                $136      $136         $0
Iowa          Dry                $125      $125         $0
Minnesota     Dry                $120      $120         $0
Nebraska      Dry                $135      $135         $0
Ohio          Dry                $140      $140         $0
South Dakota  Dry                $128      $128         $0
California    Dry                $195      $195         $0
Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074)
SUBJECT       California         Dry       $205        $198     $7
*Prices listed per ton.
              Weekly Average               $136        $134     $2
The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN
collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and
California are not included in the averages.

             VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL
               Settlement Price: Quote Date   Bushel Short Ton
                            Corn   9/12/2019 $3.5450   $126.61
                    Soybean Meal   9/12/2019 $296.10
   DDG Weekly Average Spot Price     $136.00
                      DDG Value Relative to:   9/5      9/5
                                        Corn 107.41%   108.28%
                                Soybean Meal  45.93%    46.42%
                   Cost Per Unit of Protein:
                                         DDG   $5.04     $4.96
                                Soybean Meal   $6.23     $6.08
Notes:
Corn and soybean prices take from DTN Market Quotes. DDG price
represents the average spot price from Midwest companies
collected on Thursday afternoons. Soybean meal cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 47.5. DDG cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 27.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

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Three 2019 Lock Closures on Illinois River Will Delay Barge Traffic

   The Illinois Waterway provides a navigable connection between Lake Michigan 
and the Mississippi River and includes eight lock and dam sites that are long 
overdue for significant repairs, notes the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 
(USACE). In order to facilitate repairs, the USACE Rock Island District 
developed a consolidated repair schedule, which includes a short closure to 
locks in 2019 followed by two extended closures in 2020 and 2023. The closures 
are scheduled to take place simultaneously to lessen impact to commercial 
navigation as much as possible.  

   The current 9-foot channel lock and dam system on the Illinois River was 
built in the 1930s with an estimated life span of 50 years. "The structures 
have long outlived their life expectancy but continue to operate 24/7 due to 
the hard work and dedication of the men and women charged with maintaining the 
structures," USACE noted. "Nearly half of the District's employees are involved 
in some part of the maintenance or operation of the lock and dam and navigation 
system."

   Dennis Shannon, Rock Island District manager for the Illinois Waterway, 
spoke at a meeting dealing with the lock closures sponsored by the Illinois 
Farm Bureau in Peoria, Illinois. Shannon said that the locks and dams on the 
Illinois River are "old and in need of repair." 

   Shannon said that, "the Illinois River is basically open year-round, making 
it difficult to do repairs, unlike the Upper Mississippi River Locks that close 
for the winter, allowing repairs to be done during that time." Shannon noted 
that the work done this summer is preparatory work for the major closures 
scheduled in July 2020. 

   "The Sept. 21 closure added the Lockport Lock and Dam after it was 
discovered the lower miter gates there were not functioning properly," added 
Shannon. A link to the entire meeting is available at the end of this story.

   All lock and dam facilities on the Illinois Waterway have a single lock 
chamber for passing vessels. During the scheduled closures, no vessels will be 
able to pass through the affected locks in the 2019 closure, noted the USACE on 
their website. 

   This is the latest 2019 schedule posted by the USACE on their website:

   STARVED ROCK & MARSEILLES LOCK AND DAM --- BULKHEAD RECESS INSTALLATION

   -- Partial Closure scheduled June 1-July 3 (completed) and July 8-Sept. 12 
(Updated 9/6/2019).

   -- Locks operational from 6 p.m. to 6 a.m. with a 70-ft width restriction 
and no ability to pull unpowered barges. Unrestricted lockage period from 6 
p.m. Sept. 12 through 6 a.m. Sept. 21 (Updated 8/28/2019).

   -- Full Closure scheduled Sept. 21-Oct. 5 (Updated 8/2/2019).

   LOCKPORT LOCK AND DAM --- MITER GATE AND VERTICAL LIFT GATE REPAIRS

   -- Full Closure scheduled Sept. 21-Oct.5 (Updated 8/2/2019).

   When the partial closure started in June, barge lines were not allowed to 
pass during daylight hours, slowing them from getting to St. Louis. American 
Commercial Barge Line (ACBL) noted earlier this summer when the partial 
closures started that, "A typical round trip from St. Louis to Chicago and back 
normally takes 10 days and it is now taking upwards of 27-30 days." 

   However, USACE is working with the barge companies by allowing barges to 
move unrestricted more than once this summer with the most recent occurring 
from 18:00 Aug 30 through 06:00 Sept. 3, with no daylight closures imposed. 
Then, as noted above, an eight-day unrestricted opening will begin on Sept. 12 
and last through 06:00 on Sept. 21 when the full closure occurs. ACBL also 
noted that tows will still be restricted to 70-feet wide during that time.

   Even more locks and dams are scheduled to close on the Illinois River 
beginning in July 2020, with some of the work not expected to be done until 
Oct. 29, 2020. It is that major closure in 2020 that could have some impact on 
grain and fertilizer shipments, but until the timing and length of the closure 
is decided for certain, there is no way to predict the cost to shippers and 
farmers. There is a schedule posted on the USACE Rock Island District website, 
but that schedule is subject to change. 

   You can see it here: https://www.mvr.usace.army.mil/

   Questions concerning the scheduled 2020 lock closures may be directed to 
309-794-5729 or CEMVR-CC@usace.army.mil 

   On June 3, 2019, an amendment to CBOT Delivery Rules and Procedures, rule 
703.C.G.(9) (Load Out), became effective to address the extended closure of the 
Illinois River in summer 2020. The new amendment deals with barge load-out 
procedures at affected regular shipping stations where the river is closed for 
15 days or longer. 

   Here is link to the announcement and amendment: 
https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/market-regulation/2019/05/MKR05-17-19.html#page
Number=1

   Here is a link to the recording from the Aug. 6 meeting in Peoria, Illinois, 
provided by the Illinois Farm Bureau. It discusses the possible impact on 
fertilizer and grain shipments, to note a few of the topics: 
https://vimeo.com/348447025/f35d765f8f

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

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