DTN Closing Cotton            02/04 13:38

   Cotton Sinks, Rises, Sinks Again

   For one brief shining moment, the cotton market nearly rallied today. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   For one brief shining moment, the cotton market nearly rallied today. A 
published account of a phone call between Trump and China's president on X, 
stressing, among many topics, the need for China to buy U.S. agriculture, 
spiked the Chicago grains and somewhat lifted ICE cotton. However, by the end 
of the session, cotton had bearishly retreated.

   USDA will issue its weekly exports sales Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EST. Last 
week's business saw net sales of 203,000 bales, which was off 51% weekly. 
However, shipments of 257,000 were counted as a marketing-year high amount.

   March options will expire this Friday, Feb. 6. Traders are anticipating what 
amount of Puts and Call may expire "in-the-money".

   Also on Friday, the CFTC will update its Commitment of Traders report. Its 
last release showed that the managed-money funds had net sold some 13,000 
contracts, increasing their overall bearish position to 65,000-plus.

   Next week, the National Cotton Council (NCC) will meet and release its 2026 
acres survey on Feb. 12. Then on Feb. 23, the Spot March will enter its 
delivery.

   Crude oil was higher today after the U.S. Navy shot down an Iranian drone 
and armed Iranian boats approached other U.S. ships, all rekindling fears of an 
escalation between Washington and Tehran ahead of Friday's planned talks. In 
addition, today's EIA report showed U.S. crude oil stocks falling more than the 
average estimates. Distillates fell more than expected, while gasoline stocks 
are the highest they have been in at least six years.

   For Wednesday, March 2026 went out at 62.24 cents, 7 points lower; July was 
65.72 cents, down 8 points; and December 2026 closed at 68.24 cents, minus 4 
points. Wednesday's estimated volume was 95,959 contracts.

   **

   Hear DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery and Ag Meteorologist John Baranick at 
the National Farm Machinery Show, Feb. 11-13, in Louisville, Kentucky. Their 
daily Weather and Markets Outlook sessions are at 10:00 a.m. EST, in Room B102, 
South Wing of the Kentucky Exposition Center. Note, this is a different room 
than previous years. You'll also learn about new digital products DTN is 
developing. Look forward to seeing you in Louisville!

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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