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DTN Closing Cotton            09/26 13:40

   Cotton Sharply Down on Dollar

   The cotton market was sharply lower, closing in on limit-down, as the 
superior U.S. dollar, very slow demand, a fragile Dow Jones, the unfolding 
harvest, and the general overall feeling of economic despondency collectively 
wrecked the market Monday.

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market was sharply lower, closing in on limit-down, as the 
superior U.S. dollar, very slow demand, a fragile Dow Jones, the unfolding 
harvest, and the general overall feeling of economic despondency collectively 
wrecked the market Monday. In addition, the 11 a.m. update of the National 
Hurricane Center showed Ian's track shifting a tad more eastward towards Tampa.

   The U.S. dollar posted new highs for its move overnight. For the first time 
we are reading other analysts are now suggesting the Dollar Index will 
eventually test its all-time high of 121.19. Several Fed governors are speaking 
at several different forums this week, promoting the need for higher interest 
rates. A higher dollar is negative to U.S. agricultural exports.

   Monday afternoon USDA will update the condition of the crop via its weekly 
progress report. To some degree, Monday's data may be a moot point if Ian 
unloads on the Southeastern cotton crop this weekend. As of last week, the 
bolls opening category stood at 59%. This is the most vulnerable stage of the 
crop for heavy winds and rains.   

   Traders will be anticipating this Thursday's weekly export sales report. Of 
late, serious demand has been massively diminished. Of course, with harvest 
unfolding across the Northern Hemisphere, other countries may elect to utilize 
their own supply, given that the high-flying U.S. dollar makes it, to some 
degree, not cost effective to convert currencies and buy U.S. cotton.   

   For Monday, December closed at 88.37 cents, down 4.17 cents; March 23 
finished at 85.94 cents, down 3.73 cents, and July 23 settled at 81.64 cents, 
3.14 cents lower. Monday's estimated volume was 43,152 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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