Outstanding Service    Fair Treatment    Competitive Pricing  
Strong Capital Base      Rebate of Profits  
Farmers Grain Market Letter  09/22/16 2:05:50 PM Printer Friendly VersionPrinter Friendly Version

Market Letter
Outside Markets
            The Dow has spent about equal time above and below the 18,000 mark over the last 6 months and in general, the economy seems to be in slow improvement. The U.S. Dollar Index has been range-bound, spending most of its time in the 94-96 area. Crude oil, after breaking over the $50 dollar barrier during the summer, has seemed to be satisfied operating in the $39 to $49 a barrel range. It appears that all things that pertain to life in the United States have been put on hold, at least until after the election...then we will see.

            We have had a fairly good demand for soybeans and products all year. It started with a shortage of Palm Oil last fall, which made bean oil perk up; then as we got to summer, soybean meal started getting some attention. The next thing you know, there was talk of tight Ending Stocks of soybeans, but somehow it never seemed to get the limelight it deserved. Why is this? It seems that it was getting put on the back burner, while the focus was on how big the New Crop was getting to be. It was almost like we could not run out of soybeans, because there was a big crop coming this fall. Well, here we are the last half of September and soybeans, up and down the River are being bought for 30 over November, but we just don’t seem to be able to muster up the energy to develop into a full blown rally! So, I guess they too are waiting until we have an election.
            There is not much to say about the wheat market, but that we have a lot of it. There have not been many times that the wheat market has stayed downed for two crop years, without showing some signs of a turning upward. We are about 6 weeks away from making a decision to plant some wheat, but it is hard to consider it when the cash price is barely over $4.00 per bushel. There is maybe a bright spot out there somewhere. In June 2010, we put a low in of $4.25-1/2 and two months later, it traded over $8.50. The American Farmer, being the perpetual optimist and believing that the Lord will provide, will probably sow his seed. Thank you, Lord for the American Farmer and God Bless America. Don’t’ forget to vote!
            It has been 28 months since the Chicago Board of Trade offered a price for corn that had a 5 in front of it. Developing the ethanol market has been a good move., Not only has it been a source of survival for American Agriculture, but it has shown the world that we can provide our own fuel if needed.
            The western corn belt got a good start planting corn this Spring, but the eastern belt was not quite as lucky. It seemed like from South Louisiana to Northeast Ohio, that it rained all spring. We could not get a break! Somehow...some way, the American farmer finds a way to make it happen. Here we are today, harvesting a real good crop, maybe even an exceptional one.
            Rain makes grain! Sometimes it can even make a rally. It seems to be early to have put in a harvest low, but the rally of this last week may be saying that the lows are in. We need another week of strong performance from the market to really tell if we are over the hump, but it is starting to feel like a post harvest rally could be in the making. If it doesn’t go back up just yet, we can always look forward to... the election being over,
            On the September S&D report, USDA made significant changes to the 2015 balance sheet that carry forward and negatively impact the 2016 report. The biggest change was to Domestic Use, reduced 7 mln cwts to 81 mln cwts. Domestic Use has averaged 95 mln cwt for the last 5 years. For 2014, it was 106 mln cwts; for 2016, it is projected at 103 mln cwts. So, how can Domestic Use for 2015 crop be only 81 mln cwts??? Of all the items on an S&D report, Domestic Use is probably the least elastic. 81 mln cwts is a 24% drop in rice consumption in the U.S. last year!! Moving on, USDA did raise 2015 Exports 4 mln cwts. These changes resulted in a net increase in
Ending Stocks of 3 mln cwts.
            For 2016, production was reduced 5 mln cwts due to the heavy rains & flooding in SW Louisiana & NE Arkansas. Domestic Use was reduced 2 mln cwts & Exports left unchanged. The net effect to Ending Stocks is a small increase of 400,000 cwts. Because of all the weather related losses in SW Louisiana and NE Arkansas, this report was expected to show a reduction in supply (which it did) and a reduction in Ending Stocks, (which it did not). Instead, USDA made an unexpected huge reduction in 2015 Domestic Use. With the slow sales of export milled rice, we are currently experiencing, it would have made more sense to lower 2016 export projections.
            The markets, both cash and futures, continue to be weak. Asian values have also moved lower over the past couple of months. The lack of milled rice export business is hurting the market, and obtaining a good flow of this type business is key to improving processing for southern long grain.
            Field yields are mixed in most areas of the south, MS included, making it difficult to estimate overall yields. Milling quality is well below normal in TX, AR, & MS; no milling yield information from Louisiana or Missouri yet.
FGT News
            Personnel—Playing a little catch up ball on FGT personnel news.  Brian Strazi was promoted to Controller in June 2015.  He is a Greenville native, a DSU graduate, has CPA firm experience, and has worked with FGT for seven years.  Brian is also recently engaged.  Congratulations to Brian on the engagement and the promotion!  Sam Russell joined FGT as a Trainee at our Waterproof elevator in August 2015, just in time for harvest.  He is a local guy, a 2014 ULM Agri-Business grad, and has previous experience in farm equipment and farm supply businesses.  Randy Abraugh started with FGT this past May as a Trainee in Greenville, and is assigned to our Lake Village elevator for this harvest.  He is a Hamburg native and a 2010 UALR Construction Management graduate, with six years of project management experience.  James Hall joined FGT at Greenville this month, September 2016, as Senior Accountant, reporting to Controller Brian Strazi.  He has over twenty years’ experience in all areas of accounting, including ten years with Jimmy Sanders, Inc. and ten years with Century Telephone.  James earned both a BBA in Accounting and an MBA from University of Louisiana-Monroe, after serving in the United States Army.  He is a Louisiana native and currently lives in Boyle, MS.  Ron Daniels, long-time elevator manager at FGT’s Greenville elevator, retired at the end of August.  We wish Ron all the best in his well-deserved retirement, and express our deepest thanks for his dedicated service to FGT over the past four decades.
            FGT Connect—Check your contracts, deliveries, settlement, prices anytime 24/7.  Receive a text of your tickets within minutes of delivery.  Call Will Weathers at 662-332-0987 to help you connect with FGT in this convenient way.
            Binned Grain—Let FGT help you market your binned grain.  Call for prices and shipping assistance.  Remember, binned grain is eligible for rebates too.
            2017 Crop Booking Now—FGT is quoting prices for all 2017 crops now.  Soybeans have been near $10 and JFM FOB corn is near $4.  Call for current bids.
            Rebates & Equities—FGT paid equities this month.  Did you get your check?  It was for approximately four cents per bushel cash, bringing the annual TOTAL CASH RETURN to fifteen cents per bushel for loyal members of FGT.  Don’t miss out on the co-op advantage.
            Truck Weights—We encourage compliance with weight limits in all three states where FGT operates.  It is in everyone’s interest to maintain good roads and bridges and safety.
The Lighter Side
            A busy farmer needed some help with tending to the animals. His mother-in-law offered to spend some time on his farm, and being as busy as he was, the farmer had no choice but to accept her offer.
            A few days later, the farmer’s mother-in-law was killed when his mule kicked her.
            Thousands of people from town who heard about the death came to the poor lady’s funeral, many that the farmer didn’t even know. A minister noticed this, came up to the farmer, and asked him, “Why are there so many people here?”
            The farmer answered, “Oh, they’re not here for the funeral. They want to buy the mule.”
Sights and Sounds
Sunsets paint each day’s end as
Harvest’s bounty flows to town.
Blues’ songs sear flesh to bone;
Mouth-watering tamales any style.
Festivals or football, life’s tough choices
Amos 4:11-13
“I overthrew some of you, as when God overthrew Sodom and Gomorrah, and you were as a brand plucked out of the burning; yet you did not return to me,” declares the Lord.  “Therefore thus I will do to you, O Israel; because I will do this to you, prepare to meet your God, O Israel!”
For behold, he who forms the mountains and creates the wind, and declares to man what is his thought, who makes the morning darkness, and treads on the heights of the earth—the Lord, the God of hosts, is his name!
Copyright DTN. All rights reserved. Disclaimer.
Powered By DTN