OMAHA (DTN) -- When Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall, a Republican, was interviewed last week on RFD-TV, the senator said what needs to happen to pass a farm bill is for Republicans to take control of the Senate.

"I think what needs to happen is a Republican majority in the Senate, and we'll follow up with what the Republicans did on the House side, where they put farm back in the Farm Bill, and they took care of crop insurance."

The odds lean in Marshall's favor as Republicans appear to have the edge to flip the Senate from Democratic control by capturing the West Virginia seat held by retiring Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, and unseating Sen. Jon Tester in Montana.

Democrats came into the election with significantly more ground to defend than Republicans. Overall, there are 23 Democrat-held seats up for election and just 11 Republican-held Senate seats.

Control of the Senate will come down to six Democratic-held seats in Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Each of those races is considered close. Republicans have two Senate races that are potentially close in Nebraska and Texas.

The Senate breakdown right now is 48 Democrats and 49 Republicans but three independents caucus with Democrats, giving them a 51-49 edge.

MONTANA

A third-generation farmer, Tester doesn't serve on the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee, but he has always focused heavily on agriculture, the farm bill and competition issues during his three terms in office. In the last Congress, Tester worked with Republican Sens. Deb Fischer of Nebraska and Chuck Grassley of Iowa on livestock marketing bills that would have required meatpackers to buy more cattle through negotiated cash trades. The bill never got out of committee, but the senators were able to get USDA to create a library posting details from cattle marketing contracts between packers and feeders.

Tester also has pushed for USDA to have more investigative powers to look into competitive issues in the meatpacking industry. He also has tried unsuccessfully to push for new bills on farmers' right to repair and country-of-origin labeling.

Tester finds himself trying to hold on in a state that is increasingly Republican. Polls have shown Tester consistently trailing Tim Sheehy, a former Navy Seal who moved to Montana in 2014 and started an aerial firefighting business. He also owns a cattle ranch in the state. Sheehy also has the backing of former President Donald Trump who held a rally for him in August.

Sheehy lately has been accused of lying about a bullet wound he claims happened in Afghanistan. A retired national park ranger has now come out and said Sheehy accidentally shot himself.

NEBRASKA

GOP plans to take the Senate could be thwarted because of a mechanic running ads showing him welding in a shop.

In Nebraska, two-term Republican Sen. Deb Fischer, a member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, finds herself in a tougher-than-expected race against independent Dan Osborn. A Navy veteran, Osborn is an industrial mechanic and former union leader who helped lead a strike against Kellogg's in Omaha in 2021 -- a strike that eventually led to Kellogg's firing Osborn.

In the past couple of years, Fischer has focused heavily on trying to bring more transparency and competition to cash cattle markets. She spearheaded a 2022 Senate hearing, explaining producers in her state declined to testify because of fear of retaliation. She has worked with Tester and others in an effort to require packers to buy more cattle through negotiated cash sales rather than marketing agreements that lock up supplies.

"This is not a new issue," Fischer said in a 2022 hearing. "This is not an issue that came about due to COVID. It has existed for years."

Osborn has been running ads declaring Fischer has expanded her wealth greatly while serving in the Senate and she doesn't hold town hall meetings across the state. He's taken a more conservative stance on immigration and accused Fischer of not being effective in her 12 years in office.

Fischer's campaign has maintained Osborn is really a Democrat even though he has been registered as an independent for two decades. Fischer also has attacked Osborn on abortion, declaring her record as pro-life while Nebraska has opposing ballot measures in November on abortion rights.

In the Lincoln (Neb.) Journal-Star this week, Osborn said his top priority would be establishing right-to-repair laws. "It's taking money out of our pockets and we don't even know it," Osborn said in the newspaper. "It's giving these corporations -- they're abusing us. And that's how we stop them."

With two weeks to go, Cook Political Report on Monday changed the rating for the Fischer-Osborn race from "likely Republican" to "leans Republican."

WISCONSIN

In Wisconsin, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is seeking her third term against Republican Eric Hovde, a former CEO of a real estate-focused hedge fund. The race has gotten tight with Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball showing the race leans toward Baldwin while Cook considers it a tossup. The two debated last Friday with both repeatedly attacking the other. Asked about the farm bill in the debate, Hovde said he's not an expert on the legislation, but added, "One of the problems I have with a lot of the farm bills is they're masquerading as farm bills, and while they address some of the needs of farmers, a lot of the bills are just funding big corporations that have nothing to do with farming," Hovde said. "So, I have a great concern about that, and I think farm bills need to get back for farmers."

Baldwin in the debate criticized House Republicans for cuts to projected growth for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). "We need to provide that certainty to Wisconsin farmers," Baldwin said. "They need the consistency that a farm bill has. But one of the problems with the farm bill right now is that the House, controlled by Republicans, has written a bill that's basically eviscerated nutrition programs. Farmers support nutrition programs because it means purchasing their goods."

Hovde also has suggested rolling back federal spending to 2019 levels. Baldwin said that would mean a 34% cut to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

OTHER TOSSUPS

The retirement of Senate Agriculture Committee Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., leaves an open seat in Michigan. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D, faces former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers.

In Ohio, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, a member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, faces a tight race against Republican Bernie Moreno, a car dealer from Cleveland who has closely aligned with Trump in that state.

In Pennsylvania, Cook this week shifted Democratic Sen. Bob Casey's race against Republican David McCormick from leans Democratic to a tossup race. McCormick is a former hedge fund CEO.

FLORIDA AND TEXAS

Democrats say they are "making a play" for Florida and Texas.

In Florida, Sen. Rick Scott, (R), is still polling about five points ahead of challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, (D), a former member of the House. This race right now falls as likely a Republican hold.

In Texas, GOP Sen. Ted Cruz also has about a six-point lead over Democratic U.S. Rep. Colin Allred. Cook has this race listed as leaning Republican while Sabato has it more in the likely column for Republicans.

See, "16 Close House Ag Committee Races We're Watching," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

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